Heat Treat Industry News
March 04, 2008
NAFTA Could be Election Key
Trade agreement bigger concern in Ohio than in previous contests and probably will play instrumental role in determining how Ohioans choose Democratic nominee for president - By Dennis J. Willard - Beacon Journal Columbus Bureau - Published on Sunday, Mar 02, 2008
COLUMBUS: Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton each have at times lauded the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for creating jobs in the United States, opening borders, removing troublesome tariffs and increasing exports to other countries.
Just not in Ohio.
Here, the five-letter acronym is a four-letter word and not only could be the key to the election Tuesday, but also could play a large role in determining the Democratic nominee for president.
''It has taken on a more prominent role here than in previous contests,'' said Isaac Baker, a Clinton spokesman.
''Ohioans are living with the consequences of the flawed trade agreement each and every day,'' said Ben LaBolt, an Obama spokesman.
Both candidates have referred to NAFTA in their radio and television advertisements and launched broadsides for perceived inconsistencies in their opponent's position.
Obama and Clinton have made it a point to talk tough with Mexico and Canada, responding to a challenge in their only Ohio debate by promising to renegotiate better terms or break the treaty.
When the polls close Tuesday in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, the nation should be a step closer to knowing whether the first woman or the first African-American in history will be a major party's nominee for president.
And with the stakes in an Ohio primary never higher, NAFTA is not just one of the issues in the campaign, it may just be the issue.
Why the attention on a treaty
that is now in its second decade and an issue that appeared to lie dormant in dozens of primaries and caucuses held prior to Ohio?
One word: demographics.
Voting patterns
There are clear and distinct voting patterns in the support Clinton and Obama have received en route to being the two candidates left standing in the Democratic runoff.
Clinton has secured votes from women, whites, the elderly and blue-collar workers, while Obama has done better with young, college-educated and African-Americans.
These voting patterns appeared to be holding true in early polling in Ohio when Clinton held comfortable double-digit leads over Obama.
The demographics naturally work well for Clinton in Ohio, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
Ohio voters are older in large part because so many young people have left the state. Ohio continues to battle brain drain as college graduates migrate out for better paying jobs and more lucrative long-term opportunities.
More women than men vote in primary and general elections. And Ohioans are less educated than adults in most other states, with less than one in four earning a four-year college degree.
And, to Clinton's apparent advantage, Ohio's manufacturing history means large pockets of blue-collar voters reside here.
But Obama has an issue in Ohio with blue-collar workers to a degree he has not enjoyed in other states, and the candidate has seized upon NAFTA as a way to eat into this bloc that has supported Clinton in the past.
LaBolt said blue-collar workers in Ohio are more sensitive to the need for change and Obama's campaign appeals to them for this reason.
Trade agreements like NAFTA have shipped tens of thousands of Ohio jobs overseas, LaBolt said.
''NAFTA has caused nearly 50,000 Ohioans to lose their jobs, and it has a direct impact on the manufacturing economy in the state,'' LaBolt said.
As an example, the Obama campaign points to Amweld Steel in Niles, a steel-door plant that moved 138 union jobs to Monterey, Mexico.
Obama has promised to renegotiate the treaty to include labor and environmental standards to protect American workers and their jobs.
Baker, the Clinton spokesman, said Clinton is addressing NAFTA by emphasizing her focus on jump-starting the economy and rebuilding the middle class.
''She is appealing directly to working-class people across the state by talking about the economy and talking about her plan to fix NAFTA,'' Baker said.
Like Obama, Clinton has promised to renegotiate the treaty to address enforceable labor and environmental standards.
Baker said Clinton also has called for a ''trade timeout'' on all free-trade pacts until all can be re-evaluated to ensure America's trading partners are holding up their end of the deals.
''She has proposed a trade enforcement officer to monitor trade details and dealings with our trade partners to examine open markets, practices and other issues,'' Baker said.
Clinton also says she wants to undertake formal reviews of all trade agreements every five years.
Effect on Ohio
Experts argue the relative merit of free-trade agreements like NAFTA, but few scholars can debate what has occurred in Ohio since the treaty was enacted.
According to the Ohio Department of Development, the state has lost more than 267,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade.
A review of the top employers in 1995 reveals where the jobs have gone and where they are now in Ohio.
In 1995, the state's largest employer was General Motors, with 63,200 full-time workers. In 2006, the most recent data available, Wal-Mart earns that distinction with about 50,000 employees. GM is seventh with 19,300 employees.
In 1995, the top 10 employers in Ohio were for-profit businesses. Ford Motor Co. was the second largest, employing 24,000. Today, the automobile manufacturer is 18th with 13,700 workers.
The top 10 employers in Ohio today reflect the turn from production to service and entities funded by tax dollars and fees.
These include Ohio State University and the Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, but health care also is now a prominent industry, with Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals joining Catholic Healthcare Partners in Cincinnati in the top 10.
Battle for votes
The battle for the blue-collar worker also has meant a fight to secure the support of labor unions, and Obama has succeeded not only in getting the blessings of the Service Employees International Union, but the Teamsters as well.
Obama has been successful in placing Clinton on the defensive regarding NAFTA and forced her to take steps to address the issue in Ohio.
Clinton has campaigned as the more experienced candidate and has included her eight years as first lady to bolster her argument.
But Obama has accused Clinton of cherry-picking her White House experiences, and maintains she cannot claim to have been in on key discussions and out of the loop on NAFTA at the same time.
Blue-collar workers will play an instrumental role in Tuesday's vote, but they are not the only ones who will determine the outcome of the primary.
According to the Quinnipiac poll, Obama is likely to amass 80 percent of the African-American vote in the state.
He pulled within 11 points of Clinton after being down by 21, in large part through persuading college-educated voters to support his candidacy.
On Valentine's Day, Clinton was ahead among college-educated voters 46 percent to 41 percent, but by Feb. 25, Obama was winning that demographic 58 percent to 33 percent.
Clinton still leads among older voters.
In Ohio, the American Association of Retired Persons has about 1.6 million members, said spokeswoman Kathy Keller.
Keller said almost all of them vote, adding more than half of the voters in the 2004 presidential election were AARP members.
She said members of her group pay close attention to issues and are particularly concerned about health care, not only for themselves but also for their children and grandchildren.
''We feel like our members win when the issues they care about are discussed and their questions are answered,'' Keller said.
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